ISLAMABAD: With the country anticipating record production of 25.4 million tonnes of wheat this year, the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) has expressed satisfaction over rising cereal production in Pakistan in 2014.
In a special report about Pakistan, the FAO has said the official forecast for wheat production has been revised upwards by five per cent from last year’s output, mainly because of a slight expansion in the area under cultivation, favourable weather conditions during Rabi season in the main wheat-producing provinces of Punjab and Sindh and ample supply of fertiliser and water.
Harvesting of the crop began in Sindh and south Punjab in late March and is expected to continue until mid-June in north Punjab. Harvesting of wheat and other Rabi crops in the rain-fed areas will begin after May 15.
The FAO expects the total cereal production to rise by four per cent this year as compared to last year. The total production of cereal crops (wheat, rice, maize and others) is estimated to be 40.63m tonnes as compared to 39.17m tonnes in 2013.
The report says that early prospects for the maize crop, currently being planted, are good and the preliminary forecast points to an aggregate output, including the spring and Kharif seasons, of about 4.8m tonnes. This is slightly above the output of last year because of anticipated higher plantings in response to sustained demand from the feed industry.
About the rice crop, the report says the planting for the main Kharif season will start in late June and has officially been forecast to increase to 2.8m hectares, slightly greater than the average for the previous year.
Assuming good weather conditions and adequate availability of water, the FAO tentatively forecasts the aggregate rice production of 9.8m tonnes, which is greater than last year’s output.
Due to deficiencies in wheat production for the two previous years, wheat imports for the almost completed 2013-04 marketing year are estimated to have increased considerably, to 900,000 tonnes, according to the report.
Pakistan is the world’s fifth largest rice exporter and with a good rice production in 2013, rice exports this year have been forecast at 3.3m tonnes, about six per cent greater than the above-average figure for last year.
According to the FAO report, prices of wheat and flour stabilised in most markets with the onset of the 2014 harvest. Early concerns about a reduction in this year’s output and low stocks underpinned prices in previous months.
But, overall the wheat and flour prices remained at record levels, substantially above those of a year earlier. In March, retail prices of wheat and flour in the Lahore market were 30 and 15 per cent above last year’s prices.
In March, the national consumer price index (CPI) was up by 8.5 per cent as compared to the same month last year. Compared to last year, the food component of the CPI increased by 9.3 per cent and the non-food component rose by 8 per cent.
The report notes that although overall the food security conditions remain stable, food insecurity persists in some areas, particularly Tharparkar district of Sindh.
In this district, food insecurity has grown worse since early this year because of cereal production shortfalls owing to poor rains for the second successive
season, coupled with loss of small animals following a sheep pox outbreak.
High prices of the main staple (wheat) are also a contributing factor for food insecurity, especially among low income households, concludes the report.